After New Year's Day, polyester staple fiber prices stand steady above 6,000 yuan / ton; but the last two days the futures market fell, the spot market prices are very resistant; for the future is expected, the market collision of multiple and short news is more intense; on the one hand, corporate equity inventory continues to be negative, downstream orders can also be more as of March, but on the other hand, raw material supply pressure is expected to increase, staple fiber spot processing fee space has been significantly higher than other polyester products, the market is full of multiple and short news, how will the future development?

According to the current fundamentals, into January, the downstream yarn mill start rate gradually decline, but since October 2020, polyester staple fiber business equity inventory continues to be negative, coupled with the factory overhaul after the middle of one after another, so 1 quarter industry supply pressure overall low. And downstream yarn mills are currently abundant in raw materials inventory, but currently their own orders can be received more than March, in their own processing fee space is abundant, orders good background, yarn mills before the holidays or still have a wave of stockpiling operations.

Moreover, compared to cotton, viscose staple fiber and other cotton raw materials continue to rise, polyester staple fiber is not much; cotton - polyester spread is still at a historically high level, viscose - polyester spread is continued to widen; yarn mill buyers more that polyester staple fiber is still in a value depression level, and a variety of pure spinning, blended yarn processing fee space is good, especially pure polyester T32S profit space to more than 1000 yuan / ton, so in theory, the yarn mill can accept the current price of staple fiber.

Based on the above theory, polyester staple fiber future market is still relatively optimistic expectations; but raw material costs, along with the successive implementation of polyester factory overhaul plans and the gradual increase in supply, PTA supply and demand contradictions will gradually intensify, ethylene glycol, although the short-term supply is slightly tight, but the future is also facing the same supply and demand contradictions, so in the cycle of substantial expansion, the market is not optimistic about future expectations. However, it is worth noting that the industry's expectations for oil is on the optimistic side, which will form a stronger support from the cost of polyester raw materials.

I believe that the main factor that restricts the current price of polyester staple fiber is that the market still has some low-priced sources have not been digested, the current traders of yarn mills staple fiber cost more than 6150 yuan / ton, in the expectation is not all good news and close to the Spring Festival holiday juncture, buyers wait-and-see mentality is still strong, so it is only logical that the period spot prices have narrowly fallen. But based on the current fundamentals, 1 quarter staple fiber enterprises negative inventory or become the norm, coupled with the end of the year routine overhaul increase, while downstream yarn mills holiday time slightly later than expected, and market expectations for oil in the long term is still optimistic, a comprehensive view, 1 quarter polyester staple fiber market or easy to rise hard to fall.