Chemical fiber industry chain July 2021 market review and August outlook
Part I Brief description
In July, the polyester industry chain upstream and downstream markets as a whole showed a strong pattern of oscillation. International crude oil prices fluctuate at a high level, the polyester raw material market trend to form a certain boost, in the second half of the year, due to the impact of typhoons port closure, polyester raw material market and set off a wave of upward trend, the cost of boost, polyester products market followed the raw material market and fluctuations. Polyester raw material costs continue to rise, polyester PET and polyester staple fiber factories have fallen into a loss situation, only polyester silk to maintain a relative cash flow, polyester enterprises to gradually increase production cuts. Terminal textile weaving demand is still in the off-season, affected by power restrictions and typhoons, the start-up load fell, inventory is relatively high. Therefore, the polyester industry chain market is still under the dual pressure of high costs and low demand.
Data source: Goldlink
In terms of the chain range, in July PX (CFR Taiwan) ring up 7.24%, PTA ring up 8.73%, MEG ring up 6.26%, polyester slices ring down 7.02%, polyester bottles ring up 4.97%, polyester filament ring up 7.41%, polyester staple fiber ring up 4.06%
Part II July chemical fiber industry chain up and down and trend analysis
Data source: Goldlink
The monthly average price of 7 chemical fiber products and raw materials monitored by Goldlink Chemical Fiber Industry Chain, as shown above, the monthly average price of all chemical fiber products rose in July, with the increase concentrated in 4-9%, the largest increase is PTA, up 8.73%, followed by polyester filament, up 7.41%.
Data source: Goldlink
July from the chemical fiber industry chain of products up and down statistics, as shown above, the month of chemical fiber industry chain market is dominated by strong oscillation, its overall level significantly exceeded the price of the same period last year, as can be seen from the year-on-year data, PX prices rose the most, the average monthly price rose 74.56% compared with last year, followed by polyester, the average monthly price rose 54.52% compared with last year, the smallest increase is polyester bottle flakes, up 26.72%.
The third part of the chemical fiber chain of the main product market analysis
Asian PX market shocks higher in July, as of the end of the month Asian PX estimated at $ 929 / ton FOB Korea and $ 947 / ton CFR Taiwan / China, higher than the end of last month, $ 33 / ton. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil surged high again, the upstream and downstream markets appeared sharply up the market, the industry strong intention to hold prices, but soon, with the high level of crude oil back down, the businessman fear of high emotions, the downstream PTA market fell sharply, in addition PX supply basically restored to a high level, the industry is cautious, the businessman worried about the PX new device will soon be put into production release, some merchants profit taking shipments, but the downstream PTA market performance is good However, the downstream PTA market is performing well, and Weilian Chemical 1 million tons / year PX plant parking maintenance, supporting market sentiment, the second half of this month, the sharp drop in crude oil again triggered a market pullback, but due to the chemical products generally show a certain degree of resistance, PX decline is not large, the end of the month, the international crude oil continued to rebound, market sentiment is good, crude oil naphtha firm, and Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant is not put into operation as scheduled, PX supply is relatively small, stockholders Confidence increased, the offer is on the firm side. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced the July PX settlement price at 7100 yuan / ton, 600 yuan / ton higher than last month's settlement. July CFR Taiwan / China average price at $932.14 / ton, 7.09% higher than last year, 71.74% higher than last year, the lowest price appeared in July 9 at $911 / ton, the highest price appeared in July 7 at $967 / ton.
The domestic PTA market moved sharply higher in July, and the overall trading sentiment was still acceptable. At the beginning of the month, crude oil production increase plan is less than expected, oil prices rose to support the PTA market strength, at the same time, Yisheng chemical plant execution short stop, supply shrinkage boosted PTA continue to soar, the market sentiment is high, the basis difference is strong. 8 East China main port cargo offer execution 2109 contract minus 15 yuan / ton, delivery minus 20 yuan / ton, negotiation around 4940-4960 yuan / ton. In the middle of the day, the PTA market is mainly strong, part of the polyester plant inquiries positive. With some PTA factory plant overhaul and restart coexist, start near 76.28%, supply pressure is not much, and downstream polyester start maintain high, the terminal textile market orders have improved, so the supply and demand fundamentals to boost the market, PTA market continues to be strong pattern. 15 East China main port cargo offer implementation 2109 contract plus 5 yuan / ton or flat water, delivery minus 10 yuan / ton, negotiation around 5040 -5070 yuan / ton. -5070 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, the typhoon affected the port closure, some sources of goods out of the warehouse is blocked, the spot supply on the nervous side; 22 main futures 2109 opening up, spot pity sale is the main, the basis difference is significantly stronger, the field pull up atmosphere is higher. East China main port cargo offer to implement 2109 contract plus 40-50 yuan / ton, delivery minus 40 yuan / ton, negotiation around 5360-5390 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, despite the easing of port closure, some sources of goods began to flow, but the cost side of the PTA market support is still strong, prices maintain a strong trend. 30, East China main port cargo offer to implement the 2109 contract plus 15-20 yuan / ton, the negotiation around 5520-5550 yuan / ton. Throughout the month, July East China PTA market average price at 5206 yuan / ton, up 8.73% YoY, 47.69% YoY Zhang, the highest price appeared in the 30th of 5550 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in the 20th of 4960 yuan / ton.
Domestic ethylene glycol prices moved higher in July. At the beginning of the month, the international oil price dropped to a high level and the commodities weakened, although the arrival quantity decreased, the domestic supply pressure still existed, the downstream polyester side production and sales were poor, the demand performance was average, the supply and demand contradiction intensified to suppress the confidence of market bulls, the ethylene glycol market dropped to a high level; in the middle of the month, the international crude oil futures rebounded, the cost side support was still available, the current port inventory was at a low level, and some devices entered the maintenance phase, the overall operating load was not high. The market price has been oscillating at a high level because of the delayed arrival of some shipments due to the typhoon and the impending overhaul of some coal-based plans. By the close of the 29th in 5485-5495 yuan / ton near the negotiation.
Polyester bottle flakes
In July, the domestic bottle grade PET market as a whole was in a high level oscillating pattern. At the beginning of the month, the bottle PET market was narrowly strong. The international oil price rose to a new high, polyester raw materials PTA and glycol market continued to rise, under the pressure of high cost, bottle flake manufacturers offer to gradually follow the rise of raw materials, manufacturers shipping prices gradually increased to 6900-7150 yuan / ton, intermediate dealer prices rose to 6700-6900 yuan / ton. 7 from the beginning to the middle, bottle PET market to maintain the trend of narrow adjustment, East China market prices have been around the The price in East China market has been fluctuating around the range of RMB 6500-6800/ton. As the fluctuation of international crude oil market intensified and polyester raw material market adjusted in a range, bottle PET market quotation was mostly adjusted slightly with the raw material market. In the second half of the year, the bottle PET market turned to be stronger. With the rebound of international crude oil, the raw material PTA market continued to rise high, driven by high costs, bottle flake manufacturers actively pull up, some bottle flake manufacturers began to close the plate, the market low price to sell, to the end of the market negotiation center of gravity gradually rose to 6900-7050 yuan / ton. During the month, downstream demand continued to be weak, the buying plate to maintain just demand, the market transaction center of gravity on the low side. Downstream large plants large single just demand replenishment is the main. As of July 30, the average price of bottle grade PET market in East China in July was RMB 6,760/mt, up 4.97% YoY and 26.72% YoY, with the highest price of RMB 7,050/mt on July 30 and the lowest price of RMB 6,500/mt on July 1.
In July, the polyester chip market was a strong oscillating trend. At the beginning of this month, international crude oil prices continued to rise, boosting polyester raw material prices, PTA and ethylene glycol prices are strong oscillation, cost support is solid, slicing plant offers more follow the raw materials up, some downstream plants purchase enthusiasm increased, the overall market turnover to good. In the middle of the month, international crude oil fell sharply, forming a constraint on polyester raw material prices, cost support weakened, slicing plant quotations stable down, the overall market transactions are light. By the end of the month, the international crude oil prices shocked back up, PTA and glycol prices rose sharply, the cost support is stronger, most of the slicing plant quotes up, but the downstream chasing sentiment is not enough, the wait-and-see mood is strong. By the end of the month, the market price in East China was 6700-6800 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton during the month. As of July 30, the monthly average price of slices market in 6494 yuan / ton, up 7.02%, up 43.90%, the highest price appeared in July 30 of 6800 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in July 1 of 5950 yuan / ton.
Polyester staple fiber
July polyester staple fiber market as a whole is a wide range of oscillations. At the beginning of the month, driven by the rise in crude oil, raw materials PTA, MEG synchronous rise, cost support solid, polyester staple fiber market rose slightly, downstream yarn mills and traders actively follow up, but this round of rising sustainability is not good, under the influence of crude oil plunge, staple fiber market quickly fall to 7000 yuan / ton near, basically retracted the previous gains. In the middle of the month, polyester staple fiber market to maintain a firm trend, crude oil and dual raw materials rose sharply, under the influence of this phenomenon, the downstream concentrated replenishment, production and sales improved, local shipments in 200-300%, the negotiation center of gravity high firm, but still the market a day trip, the second day, the price and production and sales have fallen back, the downstream only maintain just need to purchase mainly. Into the second half of the year, polyester staple fiber market was shaking upward trend, the typhoon led to partial closure of the port superimposed on the crude oil rebound rushed high, polyester raw materials PTA, MEG strong rise, polyester staple fiber also followed the upward trend, coupled with the staple fiber industry continued low processing fees, in the last working day of the month, there was a collective rise in the situation. As of 29th, the average price of East China polyester staple fiber market in July at 7100 yuan / ton, up 4.06% YoY, up 31.85% YoY, the highest price appeared on July 6 at 7400 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared on the 8th at 6900 yuan / ton. Sinopec 1.4D * 38mm direct spun polyester staple fiber settlement price in July at 7,350 yuan / ton, up 370 yuan / ton compared with last month.
In July, the polyester filament market is an overall upward trend of shocks. At the beginning of the month, the international oil price shock upward, the raw material market high shock, polyester silk factory to maintain the price mentality, the offer generally increased. Terminal demand is gradually picking up, the downstream weaving start rate of partial rebound. In the middle of the month, polyester raw material market to maintain the oscillating market, the cost side of the upward force is not enough. Polyester factory quotes are still firm, downstream stocking sufficient, due to the terminal sales market is light, there is a certain amount of financial pressure on the downstream weaving factory, cautious mentality is more obvious, the purchase volume has been reduced. At the end of the month, polyester raw materials overall show a strong oscillation trend, strong cost-end support, polyester silk factory quotes stable upward. Downstream factory purchases diverge, some companies are limited by financial pressure to wait and see, part of the weaving factory to buy at low, the appropriate amount of replenishment. Affected by this, this month's production and sales of polyester factories vary in height. Overall, this month, the general trading atmosphere of the polyester market, the center of gravity of polyester transactions rose. So far, the average price of East China polyester filament POY market at 7,780 yuan / ton, up 7.41%, up 54.52%, the highest price appeared in July 30, 8,050 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in the 1 day of 7,350 yuan / ton.
Part IV Forecast and Outlook
Goldlink predicts that the polyester industry chain market in August or will maintain a high level of firm pattern. Next month, international crude oil may continue to high, polyester raw materials PTA is still dependent on changes in the cost side and change, or maintain a strong oscillation, ethylene glycol market continues to oscillate at high levels, the cost side of the polyester market support solid. Subject to the high cost and high inventory pressure, polyester enterprises still maintain production restrictions, weak demand continues to drag the overall market atmosphere. Overall, the polyester industry chain market next month is still dominated by the oscillating trend. The following is the market outlook for each product.
Goldlink is expected to August PX market stalemate, easy to fall hard to rise, due to the epidemic has increased, or will affect the industry's mentality, in addition to Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II PX plant in the commissioning phase, will soon be put into production and release, the downstream more than maintain just demand for procurement, a comprehensive view, the PX market is expected to fall hard to rise in August, pay attention to the new device situation.
Goldlink is expected to August PTA market or strong oscillation. The current PTA market trend is stronger, mainly by the cost side support, as well as 09 contract delivery before the supply tension. It is understood that in August PTA part of the device is still in the parking maintenance, the start rate to maintain the low level at the end of the year; in part of the polyester plant under a small reduction in production, demand has weakened but there is still just demand. Therefore, PTA supply and demand pattern is more robust, is expected to continue in the depot cycle. In addition, the crude oil market in the summer peak oil stage, so oil prices more positive than negative, under the cost support, is expected to maintain a strong pattern in August PTA market.
In August, some coal plants will be overhauled and the domestic supply will be reduced. Although new plants may be put into operation in August, there are many uncertainties, so the market is worried but still bullish. In the short term, ethylene glycol market is supported by favorable supply, the price may be in high oscillation trend, pay more attention to the new device situation, and the oscillation range is expected to be 5350-5650 yuan/ton.
Jinlian expects that in August, the polyester PET market may run at a high level of oscillation. Supply side, the impact of typhoon weather, a number of polyester PET plant installations in July to reduce production or overhaul, enterprise start-up shock down, the market supply reduced. Demand side, the end of August terminal textile market or gradually usher in the traditional peak consumption season, is expected in mid to late August, the downstream market production and sales or gradually release, demand or slowly increase. Cost side, the short-term PTA market and ethylene glycol market will be stronger, the market boosting effect, the cost side support solid. Comprehensive view, the market supply pressure or will gradually appear, so it is expected that in August the polyester chip market or high oscillation, the follow-up should pay close attention to the international crude oil trends and upstream raw material market trends.
Goldlink expects the polyester fiber market will be strong in August. The crude oil market is at the peak stage of summer oil, so oil prices are more positive than negative, under the cost support, it is expected that the PTA market in August or maintain a strong pattern. Although the polyester fiber factory inventory pressure is not large, August still maintain production cuts, but more social inventory, downstream weaving plant demand is limited to enhance the overall price volatility of the polyester fiber market space. Affected by this, polyester fiber market will follow the raw materials run mainly on the strong side.
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